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Cake day: November 6th, 2023

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  • Or for a more recent events, Syria. I enjoy following modern history and geopolitics, but fuck me that is a mess of proxy forces, non-state actors, and local warlords.

    If it pops off, somebody on the world stage is going to co-opt and prolong any US civil war/sectarianism to keep the US broken or distracted with a prolonged insurgency and COIN. Russia is already working to highlight any existing and/or astroturf internal division, and we’re seeing right now how effective proxies can be at causing an enemy to hurt itself in its confusion.

    Iran knew that Oct7 would demand a firm response from Israeli civic and political society, and Netanyahu/the government fell for the trap. See also, 9/11.


  • Or maybe, here’s a thought: You stop reacting capriciously, and asses the situation to make an informed decision for shoot/no-shoot. Retreat to safety and investigate. Israel likes to flout their ‘world class’ ISR and HUMINT capabilities and superior and accurate weapons, but then keeps making “tragic mistakes” that kill civilians, reporters, and aid workers. Hamas et al are definitely not respecting the laws of war, but that’s not license to turn neighborhoods into free-fire zones.

    Of course that requires the forces involved respecting civilian life and showing restraint.


  • because when that law is broken, it turns civilians into targets

    Have you absolutely no shame? Or are you naïvely trying to sound authoritative? Unlawful combatants existing in an area, does not mean that civilians are greenlight for deliberate targeting.

    Nor does it excuse the atrocious and callous 1:10,1:20,1:100 ‘acceptable collateral damage’ Hamas:Civilian ratio the IDF has self assigned and modified up and down based on international outcry.

    for every junior Hamas operative that Lavender marked, it was permissible to kill up to 15 or 20 civilians… in the event that the target was a senior Hamas official with the rank of battalion or brigade commander, the army on several occasions authorized the killing of more than 100 civilians in the assassination of a single commander




  • Ding ding ding on all points but - it’s not ‘the end of history’ anymore, definitely not after 9/11 and GWOT.

    There are headwinds coming for US and western leadership, and the unlimited ‘bear hug’ support for Bibi Israel has America standing alone at the UN, a global hypocrite in the “rules based international order” whilst pointing the finger at Russia and Ukraine, or China and the 11 10 9 dash line/Taiwan/Senkaku Islands/etc…

    The global south is turning against western leadership; South Africa’s dogged case at the ICC, the French getting ejected from their peacekeeping missions in multiple former colonies, India is sending assassins to run hits on US and Canadian soil, OPEC expansion, that nut in Argentina… There’s growing rejection of the Pax Americana and/or Bretton Woods, and not in same bipolar competition like in the Cold War


  • Putin took the civilian route and “won elections” before the leapfrogging the presidency with Medevev and eventual solidification of his autocracy. He is a dictator in autocrats’ dress, faux elections and rivals aplenty, but not a general or warlord. Accordingly he insulates himself from meaningful challenge, which (like Xi and the CCP’s leadership) requires culling anyone competent immediately below you, or keeping them distracted with intra-competition for favor instead of seeking the top role.

    A crumbling Muscovy regime, a fractured society with war fatigue, an arsenal of nuclear weapons that are scattered in Russia and in client states like Belarus, an ocean of conventional arms and equipment, Russia set up in a war economy, and then add a power vacuum are NOT positives for Ukraine, Europe, or the world.

    During the fall of the Soviet Union, there were a lot of CIA agents and friends running around trying to secure and round up those nukes, lest they enter the black market or the local warlord/strongman decides “that’s OURS now” and another nuclear actor is on the chessboard.

    Though the deconfliction hotlines are broken, non-proliferation treaties not renewed, and hypersonics changing the viability of ‘first-strike’ strategy, Russia still is a known actor. Someone like Prigozin is not, and that’s my point. Putin will play ‘the game’ of great power competition. A blowhard populist with an insecure power base and multiple rivals has a very different incentive structure, and may do the unthinkable if it means solidifying their hold on power.