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Cake day: March 26th, 2024

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  • France made childcare and education free and relatively high quality and look at that! They have just under replacement level fertility!

    Some people do want children. Not everyone, but lots of people do. It’s true that wealth depresses fertility, but you can have a sustainable society if you give people financial security.

    I’m willing to believe there are some cultural issues at play, not just the economics, but that is for demographers to tease out.

    The American congressional representatives have an average of 2 children. Replacement rate. Get our standard of living up to that and you will see fertility go up.














  • I’ll take a crack.

    Slow population loss, while concerning for policy makers, can be managed theoretically by moving money around. Taxation, subsidies, etc.

    The US is currently at 1.6 fertility rate. 2.1 is replacement rate, so a pretty steep drop of 25% loss per generation. But we have substantial immigration to make up the shortfall. It’s an issue, and it’s trending down, but manageable for now.

    Fertility rates of 1 or less are terrifying. Each generation is half the size of the one before. Half as many workers supporting the elderly. Retirement/pension systems will be strained then collapse, allowing retirees to fall into poverty. Half as many workers to maintain infrastructure, half as many doctors, half as many nurses, half as many experts in every field, means half as many researchers making discoveries and breakthroughs.

    God forbid you go to war and have half as many soldiers to call on, from a workforce already stretched beyond any before. It’s a recipe for mass suffering in a scale never before seen.

    South Korea and Japan are currently below 1. China might be even lower. People are, generally, resilient and resourceful. Adjustments will be made. People will work into their 70’s and 80’s because there is work to be done. But there will be a great deal of suffering.


  • There is no plan in a democracy that resulted in “people do what I want to do.” You could try a coup.

    There are things you can do outside the ballot box. Unionize your workplace. (Or your apartment building, or your student body) create or join mutual aid societies. Volunteer for local organizations. Create and support power centers outside the government.

    The political parties won’t listen to singular people. Even billionaires, for all their wealth and power, struggle to get what they want from government in a timely manner.

    Creating power centers like unions outside of the government creates a lever of power that can move things in the future.

    Electoral politics is a game of inches. Refusing to play just cedes a few more inches to the opposition.