• 225 Posts
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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: September 22nd, 2023

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  • Now would be a good time to describe what specific issues you have with Greenwald’s reporting on past issues and where he’s been inconsistent with facts revealed after the fact.

    His stint at The Guardian where he broke the Snowden leaks?

    His work at The Intercept that revealed the corrupt dealings that led to Brazil’s Lula losing the election and being imprisoned?

    Or is it his appearances on US media, where he’s on record for questioning the efficacy of Russian interference in the 2016 election (which IIRC is backed by a study in Nature Communications) and criticizing Israeli influence in US politics?

    I’m not disagreeing with you, but you’re not exactly providing much in the way of evidence outside of your own opinion.























  • Shenyang in north-east China is offering 100 yuan (£11) a sqmetre subsidies for some homebuyers. Kaifeng in central Henan province is offering an income tax refund to anyone who buys a new property within a year of selling their old one. Changhsa, the capital of Hunan province, is encouraging developers to offer no-questions-asked refunds of housing deposits if a buyer changes their mind within seven days.

    Local stimulus, which differs from Central government policy because contrary to popular belief the Chinese government is not a monolith. Different provinces want to get investment at the cost of other provinces, but this does not change the fact that in aggregate China’s bubble is actively being deflated by the actions of the central government. The prevailing trajectory of the market, and the actions which the central government have taken in this regard, are very clear. In modern terms, this is “picking up pennies in front of a freight train.”

    Last month, the state-owned People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled a 300bn yuan relending fund to support local governments and state-owned enterprises to buy up unsold stock and turn it into affordable housing. The central bank also lowered the minimum downpayment required for prospective buyers.

    sigh do you know what the minimum down payment for a home in central Beijing is? 50%.

    Give me an action that indicates the central government is not trying to institute a controlled collapse (“soft landing”) of the real estate market. The numbers don’t lie, but apparently you do.



  • The Guardian doesn’t speak Chinese (or rather, they don’t understand it). Their reporting on China is consistently incompetent for that single fact. They refuse to dig through Chinese reports and Chinese data because they can’t understand it. The data is right there, plainly published for the world to see.

    If they did, they would know that real estate’s contribution to GDP has fell off a cliff ever since Xi Jinping declared “housing is for living, not for speculation.” If they did, they would know that investment into real estate has pretty much entirely collapsed and shifted into manufacturing (clean energy, EVs, nuclear, robotics, etc.) If they did, they would know that their stories about “ghost cities” a few years back… Ended up being, well, cities. If they did, they would know that the prevailing thought on Chinese social media is that the government is allowing real estate developers to fall… And they’re definitely falling.

    That’s what the data tells us. The bubble is actively deflating as we speak, and many estimate it to have been in excess of a 1% headwind on GDP growth in 2023… Citi just revised their projections of full-year GDP growth to 5%, and so have Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas.